WTI benchmark / 42
▲ 10.6¢/gal
Weekly WTI move converted from $/bbl to $/gal.
Gulf Coast rack signals · California price anatomy · Southeast retail context.
Start with only the new information, locate the move in the price chain, then finish with observable watchpoints. Deeper history and methodology remain available below.
Gulf Coast gasoline spot rose 25.9¢/gal. PADD 3 retail gasoline rose 12.0¢/gal. The largest bridge movement was the simple crack proxy, which widened 15.3¢/gal.
Weekly WTI move converted from $/bbl to $/gal.
Weekly change in spot minus WTI/42.
Weekly change in retail minus spot.
WTI/42 change + crack-proxy change + pump-over-spot-wedge change = the observed weekly retail change. This is an arithmetic reconciliation, not causal attribution.
Five-year rank: 98th percentile
EIA Gulf Coast spot benchmark; a rack-pricing input.
Inputs actual through 2026-09-21
Five-year rank: 100th percentile
Spot − WTI/42; a proxy, not refiner profit.
Inputs actual through 2026-09-21
Five-year rank: 1st percentile
Retail − spot; taxes plus unresolved downstream steps.
Inputs actual through 2026-09-21
Arrows show direction of the reported value, not a favorable or unfavorable judgment.
Is it unusual: Spot is elevated near the 98th percentile, the crack proxy is elevated near the 100th percentile, and the pump-over-spot wedge is low near the 1st percentile within their own trailing five-year histories.
Current context: PADD 3 refinery utilization is 96.5%, and PADD 3 gasoline stocks are below its prior-five-year seasonal range.
The four calculated layers reconcile to PADD 3 retail. Spot is the observed rack-pricing input; no layer is an observed terminal rack quote or participant profit measure. Month to date: September 2026, using 3 weekly prints.
WTI Cushing / 42 · benchmark input
$2.332/gal61% of pump price · benchmark input
GC spot − WTI/42 · not refiner profit
$1.339/gal35% of pump price · elevated · 98th percentile
Retail − spot − selected fixed excise
$-0.218/gal-6% of pump price · squeezed · 2nd percentile
Federal + TX fixed-excise assumption
$0.384/gal10% of pump price · fixed-rate assumption
Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · September 2026 average
PADD 3 — TX · LA · MS · AL · AR · NM
Plain thresholds make every alert inspectable. Sourced event dates are context, never causal proof.
Elevated · 100th percentile
Attention outside the 20th–80th percentile range
96.5%
Attention below the 88% normal floor
Below seasonal range
Attention outside the prior-five-year seasonal range
Compressed · 1st percentile
Attention outside the 20th–80th percentile range
No curated event overlaps the latest four weeks
Dates provide context only; overlap is not causal proof
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
Weekly and monthly source dates stay separate. The automated publication gate blocks stale critical inputs before deployment.
Weekly · 6 days before generation
Oldest actual date among the critical weekly inputs
Monthly · 83 days before generation
Monthly RAC is forward-filled between source releases
Monthly publication · 118 days before generation
Pinned CEC source month; never presented as weekly
Average of 3 available weekly prints. An ongoing month can change with each new release.
Crude rose $14.04/bbl while California's spot-to-pump wedge compressed, offsetting part of the benchmark move.
Nationally. The Brent-WTI spread is on the wide side of its 52-week band ($13.76/bbl vs a typical range of $1.51/bbl–$11.56/bbl). That's consistent with either ample U.S. crude relative to takeaway capacity or global crude tightness — Gulf Coast refiners get an above-average structural cost advantage from discounted domestic crude this month. WTI rose $14.04/bbl month-over-month — supporting near-term revenue for domestic (Permian) producers, though it eventually flows into higher pump prices with a lag.
Gulf Coast (PADD 3). WTI crude averaged $97.93/bbl, up $14.04/bbl vs the prior month, on the high side of its last few years (~88th percentile). The Gulf simple crack proxy (spot gasoline over WTI/42) averaged $1.34/gal, up $0.02/gal vs the prior month, on the high side of its last few years (~98th percentile). The Gulf pump-over-spot wedge (taxes plus unresolved downstream components) averaged $0.17/gal, down $0.12/gal vs the prior month, on the low side of its last few years (~2th percentile). The Gulf simple crack proxy is above its recent range this month; PADD 3 refinery utilization averaged 97.2% (within the normal range), so the elevated crack is not explained by reduced runs. The Gulf pump-over-spot wedge is compressed while spot rose — consistent with retail still catching up to the spot move (the 'rockets and feathers' pattern). For a driver covering 1,000 miles a month at 25 mpg — an illustrative assumption, not a personalized estimate — this month's retail move works out to about $9 more at the pump.
California. California retail gasoline averaged $5.84/gal, up $0.38/gal vs the prior month, on the high side of its last few years (~97th percentile). California's pump-over-CARBOB wedge averaged $1.86/gal, down $0.08/gal vs the prior month, in line with its last few years. For a driver covering 1,000 miles a month at 25 mpg — an illustrative assumption, not a personalized estimate — this month's retail move works out to about $15 more at the pump.
Month-average read of the live weekly data — descriptive, not a forecast. • 'Typical / elevated / depressed' is each series' own percentile against its trailing 5 years of monthly values, so it recalibrates over time. • The Gulf pump-over-spot wedge carries fixed federal + state excise (~$0.38/gal in the TX allocation) plus unresolved downstream components; it is not station margin. • California uses WTI nowhere here; its wedge is CARBOB spot to pump, the sticky-retail story. The CEC-disclosed gross refining margin is a separate, lagged monthly figure shown in the California section.
Latest gasoline benchmarks, multi-horizon movements, five-year spot rank, calculated rack-market bridges, supply context, and the actual source week behind every card.
Gasoline
Gasoline spot rose 25.9¢/gal week over week and is near the 98th percentile of its trailing five-year history. The simple crack proxy rose 15.3¢/gal week over week; the pump-over-spot wedge fell 13.9¢/gal week over week. These are directional bridges, not reported rack quotes or profit measures. PADD 3 refinery utilization is 96.5% and PADD 3 gasoline stocks are below their prior-five-year seasonal range.
PADD 3 total motor gasoline stocks. Days of supply is U.S. national; free EIA data does not publish it at PADD level.
The chain in levels: WTI crude (per gallon), the Gulf Coast spot product benchmark used as a rack input, and the PADD 3 pump price. The gaps between the lines are calculated spreads; they are not observed commercial margins. Use Show event context for sourced annotations at their plotted dates. Overlap is not causal proof.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
An accounting identity using PADD 3 retail and a TX fixed-excise allocation. The simple crack proxy is spot minus WTI/42; the implied downstream remainder contains unobserved terminal/rack basis, logistics, jobber and station economics, and unlisted taxes or fees.
Week of 2026-09-21 · TX fixed-excise assumption · $/gal
The calculated bridge month by month. The bands distinguish benchmark input, simple crack proxy, implied downstream remainder, and listed fixed excise without treating any residual as observed profit. Event annotations are sourced context, not causal proof.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
The simple crack proxy is spot minus WTI/42 and is not refiner profit. The pump-over-spot wedge includes fixed taxes and unresolved terminal, logistics, jobber, retail-cost, and marketing components. The chart defaults to one year on phones and five years on desktop; All restores the available history. Each sourced event is repeated at the same date inside both panels when Show event context is on.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
Hover an event code for its date, scope, neutral context, and source. Temporal overlap is context, not causal proof.
A focused companion to the gasoline briefing. ULSD means ultra-low sulfur diesel.
Gulf Coast ULSD spot rose 24.6¢/gal week over week; diesel retail is 220.5¢/gal above regular gasoline in PADD 3.
Five-year rank: 100th percentile
Public bulk-market benchmark; a rack-pricing input, not a terminal quote.
Actual aligned source week 2026-09-21
Five-year rank: 100th percentile
ULSD spot − WTI/42. Not refinery profit.
Inputs actual through 2026-09-21
Five-year rank: 25th percentile
PADD 3 diesel retail − ULSD spot. Includes taxes and unresolved downstream costs; not station profit.
Inputs actual through 2026-09-21
Five-year rank: 100th percentile
Retail-to-retail, PADD 3. Positive = diesel costs more; negative = a discount. Tax-inclusive, not a spot premium.
Inputs actual through 2026-09-21
WoW = change from one week earlier; 4 wk = change from four weeks earlier, not a four-week average. Arrows show direction, not good or bad. Aligned changes can include forward-filled inputs.
ULSD is ultra-low sulfur diesel. This view pairs Gulf Coast ULSD spot and on-highway retail prices with PADD 3 total distillate stocks and U.S. distillate days of supply. Distillate includes diesel and other fuel oils.
The broader stock pool adds supply context to the diesel price read, including fuels used outside road transport.
Total distillate stocks are not ULSD-only stocks. U.S. days of supply is not a Gulf Coast measure or a countdown to fuel running out.
PADD 3 on-highway ULSD retail minus PADD 3 regular gasoline retail (all formulations), in dollars per gallon. Positive is a diesel premium; negative is a diesel discount.
It answers how much more or less a gallon of diesel costs at the pump. Different product markets, specifications, and taxes can all matter.
It is not a diesel spot premium, a tax-adjusted comparison, a same-station quote, a cost-per-mile comparison, or a measure of station profit.
The selected product spot benchmark minus WTI Cushing converted from $/bbl to $/gal by dividing by 42.
It shows how far the product benchmark sits above a transparent crude benchmark and makes large changes in the refining portion easy to see.
It is not refinery profit, a refinery-specific margin, or a full multi-product 3-2-1 crack spread; it omits yields, energy, operating costs, credits, and crude-slate differences.
Regional retail price minus the selected product spot benchmark.
It shows the total space between the public wholesale benchmark and the pump and helps track the timing of wholesale-to-retail pass-through.
It is not station margin. It still contains taxes, terminal and rack basis, transport, jobber economics, operating costs, and marketing.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
Think of diesel as fuel for moving goods and doing work, connected to the wider distillate market for heating and international trade. Its demand story is not simply gasoline’s driving-season story.
Structural context, not this week’s diagnosis. This dashboard measures prices and supply buffers; it does not currently track freight volumes, industrial output, weather, or export flows.
Diesel powers trucks, freight trains, boats, and barges that move goods.
Shipping activity links diesel demand to commerce, not just people’s driving habits.
A diesel price increase is not proof that freight volumes rose. We do not measure freight activity here.
Diesel also runs construction and farm equipment and industrial backup generators.
Building, planting, and harvesting create demand beyond highway traffic. Seasonal work can matter even outside summer travel.
Our on-highway retail benchmark is not an off-road delivered price or a measure of industrial output.
Heating oil and diesel belong to the broader distillate fuel family.
Winter heating demand can add pressure to this shared market. Stocks built ahead of winter help cover the seasonal draw.
Gulf Coast total distillate stocks are not a reading of Northeast heating demand, local weather, or ULSD-only supply.
U.S. diesel sits in an international distillate market, not an isolated local pool.
Overseas demand competes for distillate supplies and can influence U.S. diesel prices even when local conditions look steady.
A wider Gulf ULSD crack proxy does not establish that exports rose or that an overseas disruption caused the move.
Start here: EIA’s diesel prices overview. The diesel-versus-gasoline retail premium also reflects different specifications and taxes; it is not a demand-only signal.
Total distillate stocks include diesel and other fuel oils; they are not ULSD-only inventories. Days of supply covers the entire U.S., not PADD 3. These readings add context, not a causal explanation or forecast.
The ULSD spot-to-crude gap widened this week: ULSD spot became more expensive relative to WTI per gallon. This locates the move in the product-versus-crude spread; it does not identify freight, heating, or overseas demand as the reason.
Gulf Coast total distillate stocks are inside their prior-five-year seasonal range. That is a regional inventory comparison, not proof that ULSD supply and demand are balanced.
Watch next: Watch whether Gulf Coast distillate stocks stay inside their prior-five-year seasonal range in the next release.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
The seasonal band uses the same ISO week in the prior five years, excluding the current year. History controls change the display only; the seasonal calculation uses the full history.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
Source: U.S. EIA · Metric dates, verification & calculations. California’s CEC gasoline breakdown is not applied to diesel.
Same calendar month: California uses the official CEC component estimate; Gulf Coast and Southeast use monthly means of free EIA weekly series. Each layer states whether the measurement is directly comparable.
EIA monthly mean; derived WTI-to-spot-to-retail bridge
CEC published monthly estimate
EIA monthly mean; derived bridge using Gulf spot as the wholesale proxy
California was $2.00/gal above Gulf Coast; Southeast was $0.18/gal above in June 2026.
California's CEC breakdown separately identifies $0.458/gal of Cap-and-Invest plus LCFS, alongside its California-specific crude, refining, distribution, and tax estimates. Southeast shares the Gulf wholesale proxy in this tracker, so its modeled difference appears after Gulf spot—in regional distribution, logistics, taxes, and retail—but the free data cannot isolate those commercial steps.
Comparison boundary: Structural context—not a measured price component.
Large refining and export hub; the Gulf spot benchmark is directly observed, but terminal rack is not.
CARB-spec fuel in a relatively isolated supply system; the CEC publishes a fuller state-specific component estimate.
Very limited local refining; the tracker carries Gulf product and spot economics into the region through the Colonial supply path.
Comparison boundary: Directional only: California uses CEC cost/margin estimates; Southeast repeats Gulf wholesale economics by construction.
$2.083/gal WTI/42 + $0.950/gal simple crack proxy
$2.344/gal CEC crude + $0.862/gal CEC refining margin
$2.083/gal WTI/42 + $0.950/gal Gulf crack proxy
Comparison boundary: Not like-for-like: the CEC margin combines costs and profits; the other two are residual bridges after selected fixed excise.
$0.129/gal implied remainder
$0.945/gal CEC distribution margin
$0.301/gal implied remainder
Comparison boundary: Partial: California includes estimated sales tax; Gulf and Southeast omit variable sales/local taxes and use one state proxy.
$0.384/gal federal + TX fixed assumption
$0.938/gal including sales tax + UST fee
$0.388/gal federal + FL fixed assumption
Comparison boundary: California-only policy line; not a fixed excise tax or profit measure.
Not a separately itemized Gulf program
$0.254/gal CEC estimate
Not a separately itemized Southeast program
Comparison boundary: California-only policy line; separate from Cap-and-Invest.
No California LCFS component
$0.205/gal CEC estimate
No California LCFS component
Measurement boundary: Do not treat the rows as a perfectly additive cross-market attribution. California is an official CEC state estimate; Gulf Coast and Southeast are EIA-based regional bridges. California taxes include sales tax and its distribution margin combines costs and profits, while Gulf/Southeast use selected fixed-excise assumptions and an unresolved downstream remainder.
A calculated bridge from WTI/42 to spot to regional retail. The simple crack proxy and implied downstream remainder get an elevated or squeezed status pill when the region's own 5-year monthly percentile puts this month in the top or bottom 20% — same rolling-percentile classifier the “Latest month” digest above uses. WTI is a variable benchmark input; the listed excise rate is a fixed allocation assumption.
Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · gasoline
WTI Cushing / 42 · benchmark input
$2.332/gal61% of pump price · benchmark input
GC spot − WTI/42 · not refiner profit
$1.339/gal35% of pump price · elevated · 98th percentile
Retail − spot − selected fixed excise
$-0.218/gal-6% of pump price · squeezed · 2nd percentile
Federal + TX fixed-excise assumption
$0.384/gal10% of pump price · fixed-rate assumption
Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · September 2026 average
PADD 3 — TX · LA · MS · AL · AR · NM
California · gasoline
WTI Cushing / 42 proxy · not CA crude slate
$2.332/gal40% of pump price · benchmark input
LA CARBOB spot − WTI/42 proxy
$1.643/gal28% of pump price · elevated · 100th percentile
Retail − CARBOB − listed fixed fees
$1.045/gal18% of pump price · typical · 25th percentile
Federal + CA fixed excise + UST fee
$0.816/gal14% of pump price · fixed-rate assumption
California · September 2026 average
California — statewide (LA basin + Bay Area)
California's spot-to-pump components run structurally higher than Gulf Coast's — CARB-spec gasoline, LCFS + Cap-and-Trade pass-through (about $0.46/gal separately itemized in the CEC's June 2026 breakdown), and limited in-state refining competition. The status pill reflects change vs California's own 5-year trailing percentile, not a comparison to Gulf — a 'neutral' pill does not mean CA and Gulf $/gal figures line up.
Southeast (PADD 1C) · gasoline
WTI Cushing / 42 · Gulf benchmark input
$2.332/gal58% of pump price · benchmark input
Gulf spot − WTI/42 proxy (Colonial-supplied)
$1.339/gal33% of pump price · elevated · 98th percentile
Retail − Gulf spot − selected fixed excise
$-0.037/gal-1% of pump price · squeezed · 2nd percentile
Federal + FL fixed-excise assumption
$0.388/gal10% of pump price · fixed-rate assumption
Southeast (PADD 1C) · September 2026 average
PADD 1C — WV · VA · NC · SC · GA · FL
The Southeast simple crack proxy is the Gulf's — the Colonial Pipeline delivers finished Gulf product with no local refining step. The spread above is the Gulf spot-over-WTI proxy surfaced under the SE header; the status pill classifies the Southeast pump-price chain against its own 5-year trailing percentile, not against the Gulf.
The official CEC estimated breakdown keeps crude, refining, distribution, Cap and Trade, LCFS, and every tax/fee line separate. CEC defines its margins as combinations of costs and profits, not participant profit measures.
CEC estimate · June 2026 · $/gal
Current CEC read: June 2026 Cap-and-Invest pass-through is $0.254/gal (4.6% of the $5.547/gal pump price); LCFS is $0.205/gal.
California's declining statewide limit on covered greenhouse-gas emissions. Covered fuel suppliers surrender compliance instruments; one allowance represents one metric ton of CO₂-equivalent.
The CEC estimates the associated gasoline pass-through in $/gal, so the policy component can be read separately from refining, LCFS, and tax.
It is not a fixed cents-per-gallon excise tax, the LCFS carbon-intensity program, or a refiner-profit measure.
California's fuel carbon-intensity program. Fuels below the annual benchmark generate credits; fuels above it generate deficits that regulated parties must balance.
The CEC publishes an estimated per-gallon LCFS pass-through as a separate California pump-price component.
It is not a fixed excise tax, the statewide emissions-cap program, or a refiner-profit measure.
CEC-published estimated price components that combine costs and possible profits within the refining and distribution portions.
California discloses these components separately, providing channel detail that the current free Gulf Coast data cannot reproduce.
Neither line is the profit of an individual refiner, distributor, or station, and neither should be compared one-for-one with the Gulf proxy.
Source: California Energy Commission price-breakdown methodology
Sources: CEC gasoline-price breakdown and CARB Cap-and-Invest overview.
Displayed Jun 2025–Jun 2026
CEC monthly estimates from May 2024 through June 2026; source updated 2026-08-14. Small source-workbook component residuals are preserved rather than silently forced into a margin. Regulatory markers are sourced context, not causal proof.
This same-month approximation splits the CEC combined distribution margin at Dealer Tankwagon—the closest public delivered-price seam for branded franchisees, not station-specific cost data. The retail-side remainder contains costs and possible profits; it is not station profit. Arrows show direction versus May 2026, not good or bad.
June 2026 · change vs May 2026 · $/gal
June 2026 calculation: $3.46/gal DTW minus $3.206/gal weighted wholesale = $0.254/gal distribution leg; $0.945/gal CEC distribution margin minus that leg = $0.690/gal marketing/retail remainder.
Context for the simple crack proxy: how hard refineries are running, how much product is in tank, and the crude backdrop. On desktop, orange shading marks Atlantic hurricane season. Phone charts start at one year without seasonal stripes; choose 5 years or All to explore. Historical bands are still calculated from the full source history.
Refinery utilization vs gasoline crack
High utilization with a rising crack is consistent with tight supply meeting firm demand rather than an outage; an outage typically shows the crack jumping while utilization falls.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
Gulf Coast gasoline stocks vs 5-year seasonal band
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
Brent − WTI spread
A wide spread shifts the relative pull of waterborne vs domestic crude and can move Gulf refining economics.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
U.S. gasoline days of supply
Inventory measured in days of recent demand, which normalises stock levels for how fast product is moving.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
Curated global/macro shocks, hurricanes, refinery disruptions, maintenance windows, product-pipeline interruptions, and regulatory changes. Hover a marker for its date, neutral context, scope, and source. Temporal overlap is context, not causal proof. Sources verified 2026-07-24.
Displayed Jul 2025–Jul 2026
| Date / window | Event | Category | Market scope | Context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2016–Sep 21, 2016 | Colonial Line 1 leak and shutdown | Pipeline disruption | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), Southeast (PADD 1C) | Colonial shut gasoline Line 1 after an Alabama leak; Southeast markets relied on inventories and alternate transport. | EIA — Pipeline shutdown disrupts gasoline supply |
| Aug 25, 2017–Sep 6, 2017 | Hurricane Harvey | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), Southeast (PADD 1C) | Gulf Coast refinery inputs fell sharply and Colonial briefly curtailed product movements during the disruption window. | EIA — Harvey reduced Gulf Coast refinery runs |
| Sep 14, 2019 | Abqaiq and Khurais attacks | Global / macro shock | U.S. / national | The attacks reduced crude processing at Abqaiq and shut the Khurais field for 24 hours; EIA recorded an unusually large Brent price move. | EIA — Oil-supply disruption risk and prices |
| Jan 1, 2020 | IMO 2020 sulfur limit takes effect | Regulatory change | U.S. / national | The global marine-fuel sulfur limit fell from 3.5% to 0.5%, changing the compliance environment for marine-fuel markets. | IMO — 2020 fuel-oil sulfur limit |
| Mar 13, 2020–Apr 17, 2020 | COVID-19 demand shutdown | Global / macro shock | U.S. / national | Travel limits and business shutdowns accompanied a 40% drop in U.S. gasoline product supplied from the pre-shutdown average. | EIA — COVID-19 petroleum-demand decline |
| Aug 27, 2020–Oct 15, 2020 | Hurricane Laura | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | Lake Charles-area refinery closures reduced Gulf Coast gasoline production; EIA reported some plants remained shut into mid-October. | EIA — October 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook |
| Feb 14, 2021–Feb 28, 2021 | February 2021 Gulf Coast freeze | Refinery disruption | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | Cold weather and power and natural-gas constraints shut or reduced multiple Gulf Coast refineries. | EIA — Cold weather led to Gulf Coast refinery shutdowns |
| Apr 1, 2021–Jun 30, 2021 | Q2 2021 planned refinery maintenance | Maintenance | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), U.S. / national | EIA assessed planned second-quarter refinery outages and expected inventories and imports to cover the reduced production. | EIA — Planned refinery outages in second-quarter 2021 |
| May 7, 2021–May 15, 2021 | Colonial Pipeline cyberattack | Pipeline disruption | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), Southeast (PADD 1C) | Colonial halted its main product lines after a cyberattack and reported normal system operations on May 15. | EIA — Cyberattack halts Colonial fuel movement |
| Aug 29, 2021–Sep 30, 2021 | Hurricane Ida | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), Southeast (PADD 1C) | At least nine refineries shut or reduced production, and EIA reported lower Gulf Coast refinery inputs during September. | EIA — Ida disrupted crude production and refining |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Garyville refinery hydrocracker fire | Refinery disruption | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | A hydrocracker-unit vacuum ejector ruptured during startup after a maintenance turnaround, releasing gas that ignited. | U.S. CSB — Marathon Garyville incident report |
| Feb 24, 2022 | Russia's further invasion of Ukraine | Global / macro shock | U.S. / national | EIA documented Brent and WTI trading above $100 per barrel and unusually wide intraday ranges after the invasion and new sanctions. | EIA — Crude prices after Russia's invasion |
| Jun 21, 2023 | EPA finalizes 2023–2025 RFS standards | Regulatory change | U.S. / national | EPA set renewable-fuel volume requirements and percentage standards for the 2023–2025 compliance years. | EPA — Final RFS standards for 2023–2025 |
| Jan 1, 2024–Mar 31, 2024 | Early 2024 Gulf Coast maintenance | Maintenance | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | EIA reported an earlier and larger-than-normal Gulf Coast maintenance season, with regional utilization below 80% in February. | EIA — Reduced refinery activity in early 2024 |
| Jul 8, 2024–Jul 15, 2024 | Hurricane Beryl | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | Power outages temporarily reduced several refineries and interrupted Explorer Pipeline operations between Texas and Oklahoma. | EIA — Beryl effects summarized with Hurricane Francine |
| Sep 11, 2024–Sep 17, 2024 | Hurricane Francine | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | Several Louisiana refineries ran at reduced rates while offshore production and port operations were also interrupted. | EIA — Francine took energy infrastructure offline |
| Jul 1, 2025 | California LCFS amendments take effect | Regulatory change | California | CARB's amended carbon-intensity benchmarks took effect for fuels supplied in the third quarter of 2025 and later. | CARB — 2025 LCFS amendment implementation |
| Feb 28, 2026–Jul 13, 2026 | Strait of Hormuz flow disruption | Global / macro shock | U.S. / national | Following the war that began February 28, tanker traffic through Hormuz fell sharply. EIA reported a June 17 reopening agreement and increased movements, with renewed uncertainty in early July. | EIA — Middle East disruptions in second-quarter 2026 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | EPA finalizes 2026–2027 RFS standards | Regulatory change | U.S. / national | EPA finalized renewable-fuel volume requirements for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years. | EPA — Final RFS Set 2 rule for 2026–2027 |
How fast a move in one link reaches the next. Cross-correlation peaks at the lag (in weeks) where a change in the driver lines up best with a change in the follower; the distributed-lag table puts numbers on each week's pass-through with HAC (Newey-West) standard errors.
Leg 1 — crude → Gulf spot benchmark
| beta | std_error_HAC | p_value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| lag_0 | 0.9625 | 0.0599 | 0.0000 |
| lag_1 | 0.0466 | 0.0470 | 0.3216 |
| lag_2 | 0.0362 | 0.0479 | 0.4496 |
| lag_3 | -0.0540 | 0.0394 | 0.1700 |
| lag_4 | 0.0130 | 0.0458 | 0.7766 |
Leg 2 — Gulf spot benchmark → PADD 3 retail
| beta | std_error_HAC | p_value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| lag_0 | 0.4131 | 0.0305 | 0.0000 |
| lag_1 | 0.2145 | 0.0211 | 0.0000 |
| lag_2 | 0.0773 | 0.0190 | 0.0000 |
| lag_3 | 0.0743 | 0.0225 | 0.0010 |
| lag_4 | 0.0406 | 0.0147 | 0.0057 |
This asks a simple question: when the Gulf Coast spot benchmark rises or falls, does average PADD 3 retail follow differently? The model compares the total retail response over five weeks and how quickly an unusual spot-to-retail gap closes. It tests regional averages—not individual stations, profits, or intent.
Displayed Sep 2025–Sep 2026
Spot and retail share the left axis ($/gal); the dotted line is the pump-over-spot wedge on the right. Shaded bands mark the most pronounced spot swings — green = downswings (the 'feather' if retail is slow to follow), red = upswings (the 'rocket'). A visual aid, not the test below. Global-event markers are sourced temporal context, not causal proof.
Bottom line: No clear rockets-and-feathers result: this sample does not find reliable evidence that average retail prices respond differently when spot rises versus falls. It therefore does not validate the claim that gas stations are slow to cut prices.
Across the current week and the next 4 weeks, a $1.00/gal spot increase is associated with about $0.75/gal of retail movement; a $1.00/gal spot decrease is associated with about $0.72/gal. The model compares those 5-week totals. The up-versus-down test has p=0.747; above 0.05 means the apparent difference could reasonably be noise.
When retail is above its usual long-run relationship with spot, the model closes about 9.8% of that gap per week; when retail is below it, about 9.4% closes. The difference is not statistically clear (p=0.952).
The long-run relationship check passed, so the gap-closing interpretation is usable for this sample. This tests regional market averages; it cannot isolate an individual station's pricing, costs, profit, or intent.
The response columns estimate the retail-price movement associated with a $1/gal spot move at each timing. A p-value below 0.05 is conventionally treated as clear evidence that the individual weekly response differs from zero.
| Timing | Retail response after spot rises | Rise p-value | Retail response after spot falls | Fall p-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Same week | 0.6502 | 0.0000 | 0.2226 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 1 week later | 0.1455 | 0.0000 | 0.1737 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 2 weeks later | -0.0050 | 0.8747 | 0.1189 | 0.0002 |
| 3 | 3 weeks later | -0.0187 | 0.5932 | 0.1222 | 0.0001 |
| 4 | 4 weeks later | -0.0246 | 0.3881 | 0.0835 | 0.0014 |
n = 846 · HAC maxlags = 6. The underlying model uses HAC/Newey-West uncertainty estimates and a two-step Engle-Granger long-run relationship.
A terminal rack price is not the same thing as a Gulf Coast spot price. Spot is a rack-pricing input; terminal, location, supplier, brand, additive, and contract basis sit between the public spot benchmark and an actual rack quote.
Weekly WTI Cushing price; divided by 42 for a barrel-equivalent $/gal input.
EIA weekly series. It is a benchmark, not a refinery's actual crude-slate cost.
Gulf Coast product spot minus WTI/42.
A transparent spread proxy—not refiner profit or a full multi-product crack.
Weekly gasoline spot benchmark used as an input to rack pricing.
EIA spot series. This is not an observed terminal rack quote.
Posted terminal price, including location and supplier-specific basis.
No current Gulf Coast terminal-rack series in the free EIA feed.
Rack plus delivery, jobber, brand, additive, and contract-specific economics.
EIA's resale-by-channel survey ended in March 2022.
Weekly Gulf Coast retail price at the pump.
EIA regional retail series; it is PADD 3, not a Texas station price.
Hard boundary: terminal rack and DTW are not observed in the current free EIA feed. Calculated remainders below are combined bridges, not measured rack, jobber, or station profit margins.
A reference for every source-published and derived measure: latest observation, frequency, source, verification date, imputation status, and calculation method. A forward-fill is disclosed separately from the observed/derived classification.
| Metric | Group | Observed / derived | Latest observation | Frequency | Source | Verification date | Imputation status | Method / formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Branded Rack price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-08-15 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Bulk price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-08-15 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Crude Domestic price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-08-15 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Crude Foreign price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-08-15 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Dealer Tankwagon price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-08-15 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Internally Priced price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-08-15 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Spot Pipeline price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-08-15 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Unbranded Rack price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-08-15 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California reported gross refining margin | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission SB 1322 refining disclosure | 2026-08-15 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Source-published gross margin; self-reported and not independently verified by CEC. |
| California Cap-and-Invest pass-through | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California LCFS pass-through | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California crude oil cost | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California distribution margin | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California federal excise tax | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California refining margin | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California state excise tax | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California state/local sales tax | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California total gasoline pump price | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California underground storage tank fee | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-08-14 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| Brent–WTI spread | Derived — crude context | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.RBRTE.W, PET.RWTC.W | 2026-04-29 · 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Brent ($/bbl) − WTI Cushing ($/bbl). |
| WTI benchmark per gallon | Derived — crude context | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.RWTC.W | 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | WTI Cushing ($/bbl) ÷ 42 gallons per barrel. |
| Gulf Coast diesel premium over regular gasoline (retail) | Derived — fuel comparison | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMD_EPD2DXL0_PTE_R30_DPG.W, PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W | 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 3 on-highway ULSD retail − PADD 3 regular gasoline retail, all formulations. Tax-inclusive pump prices; not a spot premium, tax-adjusted product spread, or measure of profit. Negative means a discount. |
| Gulf Coast gasoline implied downstream remainder | Derived — price-chain decomposition | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W + IRS and selected PADD 3 state revenue schedule | 2026-04-29 · 2026-05-31 · 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 3 retail − Gulf Coast spot − selected federal/state fixed excise allocation. |
| Gulf Coast ULSD pump-over-spot wedge | Derived — rack bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMD_EPD2DXL0_PTE_R30_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 3 on-highway ULSD retail − Gulf Coast ULSD spot. |
| Gulf Coast ULSD simple crack proxy | Derived — rack bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_RGC_DPG.W, PET.RWTC.W | 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Gulf Coast ULSD spot − WTI Cushing ÷ 42. |
| Gulf Coast gasoline pump-over-spot wedge | Derived — rack bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 · 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 3 gasoline retail − Gulf Coast gasoline spot. |
| Gulf Coast gasoline simple crack proxy | Derived — rack bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W, PET.RWTC.W | 2026-04-29 · 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Gulf Coast gasoline spot − WTI Cushing ÷ 42. |
| California gasoline pump-over-spot wedge | Derived — regional bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_SCA_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPMRR_PF4_Y05LA_DPG.W | 2026-06-05 | All latest inputs are source-observed | California retail gasoline − Los Angeles CARBOB spot. |
| California gasoline simple crack proxy | Derived — regional bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EER_EPMRR_PF4_Y05LA_DPG.W, PET.RWTC.W | 2026-06-05 · 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Los Angeles CARBOB spot − WTI Cushing ÷ 42. |
| Southeast gasoline pump-over-Gulf-spot wedge | Derived — regional bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R1Z_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 · 2026-06-06 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 1C retail gasoline − Gulf Coast gasoline spot. |
| Asymmetric error-correction coefficients | Derived — statistical diagnostics | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Model refit from weekly observations | Calculated from PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W, PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 · 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Two-step asymmetric error-correction model with separate up/down pass-through and HAC (Newey-West) standard errors. |
| Distributed-lag pass-through coefficients | Derived — statistical diagnostics | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Model refit from weekly observations | Calculated from PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W, PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 · 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Weekly first-difference regression with four lags and HAC (Newey-West) standard errors. |
| PADD 3 distillate seasonal stock position | Derived — supply context | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.WDISTP31.W | 2026-09-27 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Latest stock level compared with the same calendar week's prior five-year minimum, median, and maximum. |
| PADD 3 gasoline seasonal stock position | Derived — supply context | Derived in tracker | 2026-09-21 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.WGTSTP31.W | 2026-06-05 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Latest stock level compared with the same calendar week's prior five-year minimum, median, and maximum. |
| Brent Spot ($/bbl) | EIA — crude benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.RBRTE.W | 2026-04-29 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| U.S. Refiner Acquisition Cost, Composite ($/bbl) | EIA — crude benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-07-06 | Monthly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.R0000____3.M | 2026-05-31 | Latest aligned week forward-filled; source actual through 2026-07-06 | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| WTI Cushing Spot ($/bbl) | EIA — crude benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.RWTC.W | 2026-09-27 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Total Distillate Fuel Oil Stocks (kbbl) | EIA — inventories and supply | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.WDISTP31.W | 2026-09-27 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Total Motor Gasoline Stocks (kbbl) | EIA — inventories and supply | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.WGTSTP31.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| U.S. Total Distillate Days of Supply (national) | EIA — inventories and supply | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.W_EPD0_VSD_NUS_DAYS.W | 2026-09-27 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| U.S. Total Gasoline Days of Supply (national) | EIA — inventories and supply | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.W_EPM0_VSD_NUS_DAYS.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Refinery % Utilization of Operable Capacity | EIA — refinery operations | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.W_NA_YUP_R30_PER.W | 2026-09-27 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| California Regular Retail Gasoline, all formulations ($/gal) | EIA — retail prices | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_SCA_DPG.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Retail On-Highway ULSD Diesel ($/gal) | EIA — retail prices | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EMD_EPD2DXL0_PTE_R30_DPG.W | 2026-09-27 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Retail Regular Gasoline, all formulations ($/gal) | EIA — retail prices | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W | 2026-09-27 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) Regular Retail Gasoline, all formulations ($/gal) | EIA — retail prices | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R1Z_DPG.W | 2026-06-06 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Conventional Regular Gasoline Spot ($/gal) | EIA — wholesale benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast ULSD No. 2 Diesel Spot ($/gal) | EIA — wholesale benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-09-27 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Los Angeles CARBOB Regular Gasoline Spot ($/gal) | EIA — wholesale benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-09-21 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EER_EPMRR_PF4_Y05LA_DPG.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Selected PADD 3 fixed-excise allocation | Public policy — fixed inputs | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-31 | Infrequent statutory update | IRS Pub. 510 and selected PADD 3 state revenue schedules | 2026-05-31 | No time-series imputation — manually verified schedule | Federal excise plus the selected state's fixed per-gallon excise and listed fees; not a PADD-weighted tax average. |
Every important term follows the same pattern: what it is, why it matters, and what it is not.
Spot is a regional bulk-market benchmark for prompt product. A terminal rack is the supplier- and location-specific price at which a truck lifts product from a terminal.
Spot is a common input to rack formulas, so it is useful for tracking rack direction and timing when a current public rack quote is unavailable.
Spot is not the rack quote itself. It omits terminal, freight, brand, additive, supplier, contract, and location basis.
The selected product spot benchmark minus WTI Cushing converted from $/bbl to $/gal by dividing by 42.
It shows how far the product benchmark sits above a transparent crude benchmark and makes large changes in the refining portion easy to see.
It is not refinery profit, a refinery-specific margin, or a full multi-product 3-2-1 crack spread; it omits yields, energy, operating costs, credits, and crude-slate differences.
Regional retail price minus the selected product spot benchmark.
It shows the total space between the public wholesale benchmark and the pump and helps track the timing of wholesale-to-retail pass-through.
It is not station margin. It still contains taxes, terminal and rack basis, transport, jobber economics, operating costs, and marketing.
The pump-over-spot wedge after subtracting the selected fixed federal and state excise allocation.
It reveals whether the observed spot-to-retail gap is expanding or compressing after the model's explicit fixed-tax assumption.
It is not an observed rack, distributor, jobber, or station margin. A negative value is an accounting and timing result, not proof that the downstream chain collectively lost money.
The weekly WTI Cushing crude benchmark converted from dollars per barrel to dollars per gallon so it can be compared with product prices.
WTI is the standard transparent crude reference for the Gulf Coast simple crack calculation and gives every price-chain layer common units.
It is not the actual delivered crude cost or crude-slate average for PADD 3, California, or an individual refinery.
EIA's monthly volume-weighted average acquisition cost for domestic and imported crude purchased by U.S. refiners.
It offers an alternative to WTI that sits closer to the average crude cost refiners actually report consuming.
It is not a weekly market quote, a PADD 3-only cost, or an individual refinery's crude slate. The tracker forward-fills it between releases and flags those weeks.
California's fuel carbon-intensity program. Fuels below the annual benchmark generate credits; fuels above it generate deficits that regulated parties must balance.
The CEC publishes an estimated per-gallon LCFS pass-through as a separate California pump-price component.
It is not a fixed excise tax, the statewide emissions-cap program, or a refiner-profit measure.
California's declining statewide limit on covered greenhouse-gas emissions. Covered fuel suppliers surrender compliance instruments; one allowance represents one metric ton of CO₂-equivalent.
The CEC estimates the associated gasoline pass-through in $/gal, so the policy component can be read separately from refining, LCFS, and tax.
It is not a fixed cents-per-gallon excise tax, the LCFS carbon-intensity program, or a refiner-profit measure.
CEC-published estimated price components that combine costs and possible profits within the refining and distribution portions.
California discloses these components separately, providing channel detail that the current free Gulf Coast data cannot reproduce.
Neither line is the profit of an individual refiner, distributor, or station, and neither should be compared one-for-one with the Gulf proxy.
Source: California Energy Commission price-breakdown methodology
A delivered wholesale price charged when the supplier transports fuel to a branded dealer station.
DTW provides a visible seam between rack pickup and the delivered branded-station channel in California's disclosure.
It is not a station's retail price, and DTW minus rack is not pure jobber profit because delivery and other operating costs remain inside.
Gross refinery inputs as a percentage of operable atmospheric crude distillation capacity in PADD 3.
A sharp change helps describe whether regional refining capacity is running normally or under operating pressure.
It is not a direct measure of gasoline output, profitability, or the cause of a crack-spread move.
Current product stocks divided by a recent rate of product supplied, expressed as the number of days inventory could cover.
It normalizes inventory for demand and makes tightness easier to compare across periods with different consumption rates.
It is not a forecast of the date fuel will run out. In this tracker it is U.S. national, not PADD 3.
ULSD is ultra-low sulfur diesel. This view pairs Gulf Coast ULSD spot and on-highway retail prices with PADD 3 total distillate stocks and U.S. distillate days of supply. Distillate includes diesel and other fuel oils.
The broader stock pool adds supply context to the diesel price read, including fuels used outside road transport.
Total distillate stocks are not ULSD-only stocks. U.S. days of supply is not a Gulf Coast measure or a countdown to fuel running out.
PADD 3 on-highway ULSD retail minus PADD 3 regular gasoline retail (all formulations), in dollars per gallon. Positive is a diesel premium; negative is a diesel discount.
It answers how much more or less a gallon of diesel costs at the pump. Different product markets, specifications, and taxes can all matter.
It is not a diesel spot premium, a tax-adjusted comparison, a same-station quote, a cost-per-mile comparison, or a measure of station profit.
Diesel powers trucks, freight trains, boats, and barges that move goods.
Shipping activity links diesel demand to commerce, not just people’s driving habits.
A diesel price increase is not proof that freight volumes rose. We do not measure freight activity here.
Diesel also runs construction and farm equipment and industrial backup generators.
Building, planting, and harvesting create demand beyond highway traffic. Seasonal work can matter even outside summer travel.
Our on-highway retail benchmark is not an off-road delivered price or a measure of industrial output.
Heating oil and diesel belong to the broader distillate fuel family.
Winter heating demand can add pressure to this shared market. Stocks built ahead of winter help cover the seasonal draw.
Gulf Coast total distillate stocks are not a reading of Northeast heating demand, local weather, or ULSD-only supply.
U.S. diesel sits in an international distillate market, not an isolated local pool.
Overseas demand competes for distillate supplies and can influence U.S. diesel prices even when local conditions look steady.
A wider Gulf ULSD crack proxy does not establish that exports rose or that an overseas disruption caused the move.
The most recent source-observed value carried into a later aligned week when that series has not published a new observation.
Forward-filling lets weekly series with different publication timing be compared without hiding which input is older.
It is not a new source observation, interpolation, or forecast. The Sources & calculations always shows the actual source date behind it.